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Thursday: A bad night for Monumental Sports

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Source: Brian Babineau/Getty Images

Source: Brian Babineau/Getty Images

Last night was a truly awful night for D.C. sports, with the Caps and Wizards delivering poor performances. Perhaps the most disappointing aspect is that the worst performances came from the two most recognizable players: John Wall and Alex Ovechkin. Both guys stunk up the joint. No way around it. We’ll start with the Wizards, who fell to the Pistons by the slimmest of margins. This team opened the game with little attention to detail, basically allowing the Pistons to have free layups on every possession. They only kept it close thanks to Bradley Beal’s hot start from the field. The second unit came on and performed quite well, sparking the Wizards to a lead. A.J. Price was miles better than John Wall in this game, which is a bad thing for the Wizards. Kevin Seraphin had a nice game, just a few days removed from getting his first DNP-CD of the season. He was active on the glass and didn’t settle for long jumpers. He actually played like the bruising big man that he is.

And, of course, Trevor Ariza was sensational off the bench. He led the team in scoring on the night, pitching in 22 points. Ariza came into this season with a reputation as a gunner, prone to awful shot selection, but I honestly haven’t seen it. He’s been a perfect bench guy for this team, coming in and playing tremendous defense, knocking down timely shots and being a nice “glue guy.”  Probably still not worth what he’s getting paid, but who is these days?

The Pistons opened up a big lead to start the fourth quarter, but the Wiz wouldn’t go away. They even had a chance to win it after an ill-advised clear path foul from the Pistons. Their last possession was a classic botch-job, as Bradley Beal’s inaccurate pass led to a rushed Ariza corner three that came up short. Buck and Phil thought the shot was good, however, leading to some awkward television. For the record, I’m a huge fan of both of these guys. They’re the best in the business. Slip-ups happen sometimes. Keep on fighting the good fight, guys.

The story of this game, though, was the continued horrid play of John Wall. Wall was 3-9 from the field, with seven turnovers and a -11 while he was on the court (compare that to A.J. Price’s +12). His jump shots were typically atrocious, his driving game was forced and resulted in a lot of bad shots, he was lazy on defense and didn’t move to the basket to get rebounds. Basically, he was as bad as you can be. And then he had the nerve to blame his teammates for his turnovers after the game.

I’m getting really sick of this act from Wall. It just comes off as immature from a guy who is supposed to be the face of this franchise. I think part of what drives me crazy about Wall’s game is that there is such a high degree of difficulty on all of his shots, because he can’t make a simple, wide-open 18-foot jump shot. He’s forced to get his points by driving into the lane, contorting his body around three defenders and putting up some wild shot (which DOES, occasionally, go in, it should be noted). Star players shouldn’t have to work so hard for their points. And Wall wouldn’t have to either if he could just make a jump shot.

In short, grow up John Wall. There’s real talent on this team for once, and the team is winning IN SPITE of your performance (despite what the simplified narrative may tell you). It’s time to improve your game and stop pouting after bad performances like a five-year-old.

Capitals: At leas the Wizards put up a fight. The Caps looked completely disinterested from the start last night, losing to the Flyers in embarrassing fashion.  True, this was the second game of a back-to-back set, but this team had no spark or drive of any sort. And with the Caps being in last place in the Eastern Conference, they can’t really afford those types of lapses.

The only players who looked like they MIGHT be interested in playing hockey last night were Joel Ward, Braden Holtby and Philipp Grubauer. Ward had the team’s only goal, Holtby was unfortunately pulled in the second period after his teammates utterly abandoned him and Grubauer made a couple of nifty saves in his NHL debut, after replacing Holtby. If there is any sliver of silver lining to this game, it’s the play of Grubauer who showed why there is so much faith in him in the organization and that the Caps continue to develop quality, young goaltenders.

But that’s about where the “good” from this game stops. Alex Ovechkin was wandering around the ice, putting forth little effort and tripping over himself when he was trying. As you might have expected, Mike Milbury loved this opportunity to rip into Ovechkin.

Look, Milbury is a troll and a dick. He’s also got a terrible track record of success in the NHL. So I don’t know why we have to treat him as an expert. That being said, he raised a lot of valid points last night. For the first time in a long time (ever?), I actually agreed with Milbury’s ripping of Ovechkin (this isn’t his first foray into the subject matter). Ovechkin’s performance was dreadful last night. At least he didn’t blame his teammates after the game (the search for silver linings is the theme of this post).

  • Recap: RMNB
  • Standings: Caps are tied with Buffalo for the worst record in the Eastern Conference
  • Next game: Saturday @ Winnipeg 3 PM ET/ 2 PM CT

Nationals: The Nats lost 5-1 to the Marlins in spring training. Some notes from reading the box score:

  • Lots of regulars in the lineup. Not a lot of hits to show for it. It’s early.
  • Tanner Roark gave up 4 runs in 1 1/3 innings. He’s probably in the same area as Ryan Perry (who got lit up the day before) in the No. 8-11 starter range. C’mon Chris Young!
  • Drew Storen with a scoreless inning at the end. Good for Drew!

 

Friday roundup: Caps beat Lightning

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Bruce Bennett/ Getty Images

Bruce Bennett/ Getty Images

Let’s start the day off with the Caps victory over the Lightning. The Lightning are a truly pesky team, that has been a thorn in the side of the Caps over the years (never more so than their second-round playoff sweep a couple years ago). The team has a ton of talented players, from Martin St. Louis to Vinny Lecavalier to Steven Stamkos. That talent hasn’t translated into a hot start yet, but this team did beat the Caps on opening night, and the level of competition was a clear upgrade from the ragged Panthers team the Caps had beaten the last two games.

With that in mind, it was a really good victory for the Caps. For fifty minutes, they played their best hockey of the season, in my mind. The action was end-to-end, Caps hockey, but the Caps got the better of the exchanges. Most of the Lightning advances were harmlessly defused and led to odd-man breaks for the Caps forwards (and Mike Green who really jumped into the attack last night). It looked like the counter-punching style that head coach Adam Oates wants to play.

Then the Caps took their foot off the gas (to use the most tired of cliches), and allowed the  Lightning to get back in the game, scoring twice and cutting the deficit to 4-3. It took a mad scramble at the end to stave off a heartbreaking loss.

Eric Fehr was the obvious star of this one, scoring two goals, one a grind-it-out goal and another a beautiful snipe-shot on a mini-breakaway. I think people forget that Fehr was once a first-round draft pick and top prospect for this organization. Obviously, he’s never going to be a superstar for a team. But it was another shrewd move by GMGM to pick up Fehr just before the season started. I don’t know if he’s ready for top-six playing time, as some have suggested, but he’s definitely a solid third-line option (seems like the Caps have a lot of those these days).

Alex Ovechkin was active offensively in the game, while being held without a goal. However, on Tampa Bay’s first goal, Ovechkin was lazy in his backcheck, allowing the Lightning to get a 3-on-2 advantage. He followed it up by standing around occupying space in front of the goalie, while the Lightning poked away at the puck and eventually scored. Great effort from the captain.

At this point my biggest concern for the Caps is that they’re going to be an average team. I think most can acknowledge that the worst position for franchise building is to continually be drafting in the 10-15 range. It’s the area right on the cusp of the playoffs, but good enough that you’re not acquiring top-notch talent to put you over the edge in the draft. Unfortunately, there is a legitimate possibility that both the Caps and the Wizards enter into this territory in 2013.

If the Caps turn it around this season and get in tune with Oates’ system, great. I’m all for winning. But, if not, let’s be real bad, ok? If the Caps go in that direction, here would be my plan of attack:

  • Trade Mike Ribeiro at the deadline.
  • Get a top-five pick in one of the best drafts in recent memory, according to experts. Draft Nathan MacKinnon or Seth Jones, if you can get one of the top two spots.
  • Bring Filip Forsberg over from Sweden at the start of the 2014 season
  • Bring Evgeny Kuznetsov over from Russia the INSTANT the 2014 Olympics are over
  • Allow Braden Holtby and Michal Neuvirth to work through their issues with playing time, and allow Philipp Grubauer to continue to develop at Hershey. Hopefully, one of these guys will seize the golden opportunity that has been placed in front of them.

At this point, you could have a forward lineup along the lines of:

  • Ovechkin-Backstrom-Brouwer
  • Forsberg-MacKinnon-Kuznetsov
  • Ward-Laich-Chimera
  • Perrault-Beagle-Hendricks

That lineup looks a lot better to me, where you have third-line guys playing third-line roles, instead of first-line roles. This doesnt’t take into account potential return for Ribeiro, or possible (ok, doubftul) improvement from Marcus Johansson.

Hopefully, Dmitry Orlov will be helpful in 13 months, so your defense corps looks something like this:

  • Green-Alzner
  • Carlson-Orlov
  • Schilling-Kundratek

The goalie situation is basically the same, with one of Grubauer, Neuvirth and Holtby presumably saying, “Hey, I’d like to be a starting goalie in the NHL. That’d be cool, right?”

That looks like a pretty damn good team to me, and one that is sustainable for years to come. The only player who will be getting up there in age will be Joel Ward, who is 32 currently. But Joel Wards grow on trees (no, that’s NOT racist, you jerks). You can easily find someone to fill that role. Heck, maybe Tom Wilson is ready to take that spot. Everyone said he was going to be a project offensively when he was drafted, but Wilson has impressed so far this season, so much so that he earned an invite to Caps big-league camp this preseason.

And what did I do to get to this magical team? One year of tanking. That’s it! Again, that doesn’t even take into account potential return for Ribeiro. It’s just allowing GMGM’s smart draft moves to play out.

That’s one of the reasons that I think people who compare McPhee to Ernie Grunfeld are nuts. McPhee is constantly winning at the draft (Anton Gustafsson not withstanding). McPhee got Kuznetsov in the late first round, Holtby and Grubauer in the fourth round, Orlov in the second and the list goes on. Grunfeld is the opposite of that. The POLAR opposite of that.

(Another sneaky smart move of McPhee’s: acquiring Kundratek last year from the Rangers in exchange for Francois Bouchard. Kundratek is playing regularly for the Caps. Bouchard is in Europe somewhere. I’m telling you, this guy FLEECES other GMs when it comes to young prospects.)

Maybe none of this is even necessary and the Caps will keep playing like they have the past three games. But my point is that the Caps do have an extremely bright future if things don’t go their way this year. The only bad things that could happen to the Caps are:

  1. They fall into the abyss of mediocre and finish like 9th in the East
  2. GMGM, under pressure from Leonsis, under pressure from fans, is forced to blow up the team at the deadline
  3. GMGM, under pressure from Leonsis, under pressure from fans, is forced to make a panic, buy-now move at the deadline, mortgaging the team’s future in the process.

But that probably won’t happen right?

Anyways, sorry for the rant.

  • Standings Update: the Caps (with 11 points) sit in a five-way tie (!!!) for last in the Eastern Conference. In the Southeast, they’re six points back of the first-place Hurricanes.

Other recaps of last night’s action from people better than I:

Wizards:

The Wizards are off for the all-star break, but that doesn’t mean that yesterday was uneventful day. Most of the action stemmed from agent David Falk slamming John Wall in comments made to the Post’s Mike Wise (troll harder, Mike).

My take: Falk’s comments were out of line to be said publicly, but not SO far from the truth.  Don’t get me wrong, I love what John Wall has done for this team since his return. He’s a nice player to have, and certainly a monumental upgrade over A.J. Price.

However, a franchise player he is not. He has had trouble defending such offensive stalwarts as Isaiah Thomas and Will Bynum in the recent weeks. If the team gets in trouble, his go-to move is to dribble out-of-control and wildly throw up a shot in the lane, hoping he gets a foul call. That’s just not how franchise players get their teams out of a rut. If the Wizards are in trouble right now, Nene is the guy that the team looks to for the “run-stopping” basket.

I don’t think Falk fairly judged Ariza and Okafor. I think, being an agent, he fixated on their contract numbers and not their recent performance. Are these two living up to the massive amount of money owed to them? Of course not. But each has played a critical role in this team’s recent turnaround.

On Nene, how in the world does falk know he doesn’t want to be in Washington? Does he have some sort of wire-tap set-up in the locker room? That doesn’t seem to mesh with the guy who was sitting in the locker room after losses, taking the defeats personally.

Finally, it’s not earth-shattering that the rest of the roster (minus Bradley Beal) is a work in progress.

And now that I’ve finished evaluating the article, I’ve realized that the trolls won. Great. I guess I’m the troll-bait (something you would never want to be called in high school).

  • Standings Update: The Wizards are the third-worst team in the NBA, 11 games back of the eighth-place Bucks in the Eastern Conference.

Some relevant links:

Bullets Forever’s Jordan Crawford midseason report card; Trevor Ariza

Nationals: 

I love the beginning of spring training. I love the intimate access that players grant the media, and the pictures and videos that accompany this access. And if you want to get really fired up, read the first Boz column of the spring.

More interestingly, although along the same lines, was this column from Jon Paul Morosi about Strasburg wanting to be the lead donkey.

I think there is an important point, which was raised in last year’s divisional round, that this rotation just fits better personality-wise when Strasburg is at the top. He genuinely WANTS to be the lead dog. The guy that takes all of the pressure and then rises above and beyond the expectations (see, his Major League debut).

Gio is a happy-go-lucky guy, who didn’t quite fit the bulldog/ace mold last October. Similarly, I think Zimmermann and Detwiler fit better as No. 3 and 4, than 2 and 3. Hopefully, all will be right in the world (or at least the Nationals’ starting rotation, now that Strasburg is back at the top).

Other links worth perusing:

Denard Span is scared of fish

A guess from the Nats Prospects blog about low-A Hagerstown’s pitching staff

  • My quick take: looks like there isn’t going to be anyone worth watching on that staff. Lot of organizational guys, not so much on the real prospect side. The one name to watch would be last year’s third-round pick, Brett Mooneyham, who has good raw stuff, but needs better command.

LaRoche re-signs, Morse trade rumors

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Source: Getty Images

Source: Getty Images

Let’s take a break from Mike Shanahan, James Andrews and RGKnee to talk about a story that will probably get swept under the rug, given the Redskins dominance in this town: Adam LaRoche re-signing with the Nationals. The player and team ended a long stalemate (to borrow the best way of characterizing these negotiations from the Post’s Adam Kilgore), agreeing to a 2-year, $24 million contract. A few points from the nitty-gritty of the contrat: LaRoche definitely was hurt by the draft pick compensation that was attached to signing him away from the Nats. The fact that this was the best offer for a guy who hit over 30 home runs and 100 RBI, while winning the Gold Glove really tells you something about how much teams value draft picks and building through their own farm system these days (you can thank the Rays for that trend). From the Nats perspective, they got exactly what they wanted: they drew their line in the sand and didn’t have to cross it. They didn’t block up positions a few years down the line for their younger players like Anthony Rendon, Tyler Moore and Matt Skole. And they were able to bring back a tremendous player, who has a calming clubhouse effect. One of the more underrated aspects of this deal is the effect this has on Bryce Harper. Not only is LaRoche already a great mentor to Harper (and his kid hangs out with Harper when everyone goes boozing, apparently), but say Harper were to take a step back this year (I don’t expect this to happen, but it’s amazing to me that no one has at least CONSIDERED the possibility). With LaRoche providing another lefty bat in the lineup, Harper doesn’t have to hit in the three- or four-hole if he’s struggling. Sure, the Nats (as Buster Olney writes today) would probably prefer this lineup for its left-rigth balance:

CF Denard Span

RF Jayson Werth

LF Bryce Harper

3B Ryan Zimmerman

1B Adam LaRoche

SS Ian Desmond

2B Danny Espinosa

C Wilson Ramos/ Kurt Suzuki

This lineup should result in a lot of pitches for Werth to hit, as well as Zimmerman, but say it has a negative effect on Harper. If it looks like he isn’t up to the challenge for that spot in the line-up, they can shuffle the deck, provide protection again for Harper by hitting him in the No. 2 spot (moving Zimmerman to 3, LaRoche to 4 and Werth to 5) and the club is still able to maintain a great lefty-righty diversity.

Now the question becomes what to do with Michael Morse. Just a couple of years ago, Morse finished in the top 10 in the NL MVP voting. He’s a fan favorite in DC, and sounds like everyone on the team’s loves him. But he’s never taken well to being a bench/platoon player (and it’s shown in his production). Mike Rizzo is going to have a tough decision in front of him about whether he should trade him now or later. On the one hand, if Rizzo trades him now, he may only get 70 cents to the dollar for Morse. And it doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense to just give away a guy who, if there were to be an injury in the Nats lineup, could be plugged in and hit .310 with 20-30 home runs and 80-100 RBI. On the other hand, Morse’s stock could drop precipitously if he either gets hurt (and Morse is not the most durable player in the world) or he struggles in a part-time role.

Another monkey wrench was thrown into the equation yesterday with Ken Rosenthal’s report that Morse strongly dislikes the idea of being a DH only. That cuts down the number of potential trade partners for the Nationals to deal with significantly.

While it may be difficult for Rizzo to find a trade partner who is willing to give up a fair haul for Morsa (and all indications are that the Nats are looking for a left-handed reliever and/or high-ceiling pitching prospects), I don’t think the Nats should settle for just throwing Morse away. For example, this proposed deal of Michael Morse for Boone Logan is comical and insulting to me. While Logan has proven himself to be a quality reliever who can pitch to both lefties and righties (which seems to be a desire of Rizzo’s), you can’t just trade a middle-of-the-order bat for middle reliever. With the way that relievers burn out, Logan could be completely useless in a year (although opposing GMs are probably saying something similar about Morse, given his injury history). If the Nationals can’t get some high-end prospects for Morse, I say keep him. I don’t think Morse is the type of player to sulk and bring the team down around him if he’s playing less than he would like. Plus, how great would it be to be able to tap this guy off the bench in the late innings? Chad Tracy ain’t got nothing on the Beast!

It’s certainly possible that I’m overvaluing Morse because I’m a Nats fan. There’s certainly an attachment to a guy who was acquired for a bag of balls (sorry Ryan Langerhans), revived his career for a team that was awful for a while, and has become a quirky, fan-favorite in short time. Also, everyone loves dingers and Morse hits some awe-inspiring dingers. I admit that all of those are probably irrational things that are factoring into my valuation on Morse. But, I’m not apologizing for it. If someone wants to pay fair value for a guy who could hit in the No. 5 hole for just about every team in the bigs, then great. If not, let’s keep Morse, send Tyler Moore down to AAA (where he could get more at-bats after a year where he played sporadically) and move forward with the best bench in the National League.

Also, we’d still get to hear Take On Me! 

Nationals off-season update

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The Nats new fifth starter

The Nats new fifth starter

Now that the Winter Meetings have passed, and the Nats are in the doldrums of the off-season, it seems like a good time to take stock of what the Nats have accomplished so far this hot stove season. Unlike most teams, the Nats came out firing at the Winter Meetings, completing a trade for centerfielder Denard Span and signing free agent pitcher Dan Haren. Both addressed clear organizational needs and both are very much “win-now,” “go-for-it” kind of moves. Let’s take a look at some of the implications of these moves (focusing more on non-Span issues, since I did a deep dive on that last week):

  1. Nationals keep payroll reasonable- One of the worst things the Nationals could have done this off-season was to sign a couple big-name, over-priced free agents (looking at you Michael Bourn, Zack Greinke) and ruin their ability to maintain homegrown players like Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann (and Strasburg and Harper eventually). Haren is going to get paid $13 million this year, but it’s only a one-year deal. Span, as we have discussed, is on a very team-friendly deal for the next two seasons. The Nationals have apparently drawn their line in the sand with regards to LaRoche, meaning he’ll either be back on a two-year deal (which won’t inhibit other long-term deals) or he won’t be back (and the Nationals will use the even cheaper combo of Michael Morse and Tyler Moore).
  2. Nationals avoid gutting farm system entirely- The Nats paid a large price for Span, giving up top pitching prospect Alex Meyer. However, they didn’t gut the system like they would have had to if they wanted to acquire James Shields. In order for the Nats to have beaten Kansas City’s package, they probably would have had to include Rendon and at least one of Morse and Espinosa. I’m not even sure that gets it done. Basically, my main point in this post has been the Nationals have avoided the panic move: the move that, either by destroying your farm system or destroying your payroll flexibility, sets an endpoint for a team’s “window.” Now, the Nationals certainly have some work to do in order to keep their system flowing (a trade of Morse for prospects would certainly help things). They won’t be picking at the top of the draft anymore, so they’ll need to find some hidden gems later in the first round. But the Nationals continue to show the same philosophy they did when they shut down Strasburg: we’re in this thing for the long-haul. We’re not about a just winning one year. We’re not gonna win one, not two, not three, not four (can’t believe I just referenced LeBron. That’s probably the all-time jinx. If the Nats win 60 games next year, I’ll take the blame).
  3. Remaining Priorities- The most obvious thing left is finding a left-handed reliever to fill the void left by Sean Burnett’s departure. While the Nats do have some relievers who can get lefties out already (Tyler Clippard, Craig Stammen and even Henry Rodriguez had good numbers versus lefties last year), a playoff team has got to have that one lefty with weird, nasty stuff to get out the likes of Jason Heyward and Adrian Gonzalez. They could use a depth starting pitcher, but they should be able to find one once the musical chairs stop and free agents start getting desperate (it’s nice that players now WANT to play for the Nats). And, of course, they have to see what LaRoche decides. But, from the Nats side of things, their actions seem pretty cut and dry: either LaRoche accepts and they trade Morse, or he walks and Morse becomes the everyday first baseman.

I think the take-away from this off-season so far (to use a bad gun metaphor) isn’t the Nats didn’t fire all their bullets. They tinkered and plugged in gaps, but they still have the flexibility (both payroll-wise and prospect-wise) to pull the trigger on a big move in the season if they need to. That flexibility could prove invaluable if injuries were to strike. The Nats won’t be the Phillies who, as soon as they lose a couple pieces, the wheels fall off of the wagon. And that just shows the continued balance that Mike Rizzo is able to strike between the long and short term.

The Denard Span Trade

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The Nationals new centerfielder

The Nationals new centerfielder

The Nationals made a big splash yesterday trading top pitching prospect Alex Meyer to the Twins for centerfielder Denard Span. Span, who is under contract through 2014 with a team option for ’15, becomes the Nats leadoff hitter and centerfielder for, presumably, at least the next two seasons. In doing so, the Nats fill the void they have had in centerfielder since, well, since they moved the franchise to D.C. Span’s contract is much more reasonable than the bounty the Nats would have had to pay to get B.J. Upton (who signed with the Braves for 5 years, $75 million) or Michael Bourn (who presumably would have commanded a figure north of that amount).There are also question-marks surrounding Meyer:

  1. At 6-foot-9, will he be able to repeat his delivery enough to stay as a starter?
  2. He has an upper-90s fastball and a wipeout slider (both plus, if not plus-plus pitches), but his change-up is average at-best right now. Does this two-pitch approach mean he is destined for the bullpen?
  3. He has yet to pitch above A ball. How will his stuff fare against more seasoned hitters in AA (a key developmental level for any prospect)?

So it’s not a sure bet that Meyer develops into a front-of-the-line starter.

In addition, Span’s contract sets up perfectly for the development of top outfield prospect, Brian Goodwin. Goodwin just made it to AA this season, where he struggled for the most part (understandable considering the large jump he made from low-A ball). Goodwin flashed potential in the Arizona Fall League, but was inconsistent, batting under .250 in his stint. If Goodwin is ready in 2015, the Nats can decline the option on Span’s contract. Heck, if Goodwin is ready in ’14, they can trade Span mid-season, given his team-friendly contract.

Span brings stellar centerfield defense to the table (an improvement over the above-average Bryce Harper) as well as speed and a high-OBP to the top of the Nats lineup. He is also another left-handed bat to balance out the right-handed heave Nats lineup.

He gives the Nats increased leverage with free agent Adam LaRoche. If LaRoche doesn’t want to return to the team on the Nats’ terms, they can simply part ways and move Michael Morse to first base. On the other hand, if LaRoche does return to the team, the Nats have a solid trade chip in Morse, which they could use to acquire a fifth-starter.

Span’s team-friendly contract allows the Nats more payroll flexibility this offseason, meaning the team could get into the market for a top-flight starting pitcher like Zack Greinke or Anibal Sanchez (who actually had surprisingly comparable statistics last season). If the Nats added either of those two pitchers to their rotation, they would unquestionably have the best rotation in baseball.

Finally, Span allows Jayson Werth, who was an effective if atypical leadoff hitter last year, to move down in the lineup and hit in a spot where Mike Rizzo believes he is better suited (I’m not sure I agree, but I’ll trust Rizzo).

All of this makes the trade look AMAZING, but here’s my problem: I’m not sold that Span is that good. Look at his statistics. He’s not exactly an all-world centerfielder. All-star appearances? Zero. He’s finished in top-10 in the AL in batting average exactly ONCE. He has never hit more than eight homeruns in a season. He’s basically a slap-hitter who relies on his speed and BABIP (as Keith Law pointed out). In my opinion, he’s a better Nyjer Morgan without the craziness that is Nyjer Morgan. He’s not a game-changer. He’s a nice piece to have, but he’s not a difference-maker.

Span has also battled concussion problems the last few seasons. Span played in 70 games in 2011 and 128 last season. Who knows how many games this guy will even see on the field?

Is this really the guy worth mortgaging the farm for? Because if you look at the Nats minor league pitching situation now, it’s bone-dry. What was a strength just 13 months ago has become a weakness, given the trading away of Brad Peacock, Tom Milone, A.J. Cole and now Meyer. And part of that is expected when a team transforms from a bottom-of-the-league joke (lookin’ at you Wizards) to a bona fide title contender. But the Nats got a Cy Young candidate in Gio Gonzalez. Now they’re trading an even better prospect (albeit not the quantity that Gio warranted) for a league-average player?

Nats fan shouldn’t expect an impact pitcher for at least three years now. Their best prospect, Lucas Giolito just had Tommy John and won’t start pitching again until late this season, if at all. So he probably starts in low-A in 2014. That’s a loooong time from now. Sammy Solis is coming off of Tommy John and is probably slated for AA. Nathan Karns hasn’t pitched above A ball. Matt Purke is continually hurt. The team has ZERO depth right now if one of their starters were to go down (let’s not forget that the Nats had incredible luck with their starters’ health in 2012).

Finally, I’m not as bearish on Meyer as some are. I DO think he’ll end up as a starter in the bigs, and he could be a pretty dang good one at that. If there are all these concerns about his delivery and wildness, why weren’t his walk numbers high last year? Even if he does wind up as a reliever, it’s not like 6-foot-9 flamethrowers grow on trees. The Nats have an outstanding bullpen right now, but relievers burn out FAST. Think Drew Storen is going to be the Nats closer for the next ten years? I got some bridges I want to sell you.

All in all, I just don’t think Span is talented enough to warrant this move. I get that this team is in “win-now” mode, which it totally should be. But I think that there is a better use of a limited resource (Meyer) than simply trading him away for a run-of-the-mill centerfielder.

 

 

Required Reading for Nats Fans

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Rendon comes in as the No. 1 Prospect on this list

It’s about that time when Prospect Rankings are going to start coming out across the various websites, and here is one to peruse this morning from Bullpen Banter.

I think the commentary here is really spot-on: the Nationals have some high-ceiling guys with injury concerns up top, a couple other nice pieces (Goodwin, Meyer, Skole) and then a whole bunch of marginal guys who might not ever be big-league starters. This isn’t the worst news because, remember, the Nationals had the best record in baseball last year. There is quite a bit of talent already at the major league level and with a team like that it’s probably better to have a system with a couple high-ceiling guys than a system with more sure-thing, lower-ceiling guys. The Nationals have another lottery-ticket player lower in the rankings in Matt Purke, but as the guys at Bullpen Banter mentioned, anytime a player has shoulder issues, you should be concerned. VERY concerned.

I was a little surprised by no Nathan Karns on this list, but then again the guy is 25 years old and has yet to pitch above A ball. He may have great numbers so far, but he is going to need show up at higher levels to really merit a higher ranking.

Playing What If: Zack Greinke

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Not too shabby for a No. 5 starter

Last week we played “What If” with the Justin Upton rumors. My conclusion was that, while Upton is certainly a great piece that every team would love to have, the price would be too exorbitant for the Nationals. Today, let’s turn our attention to another rumor that has started to make the rounds: what if the Nationals went all-in on pitching and gave Zack Greinke a fat contract?

To start off, there is the money aspect: This is probably another $100 million contract. While Greinke may deserve that money, this would set the Nationals up with three $100 million players on the roster: Greinke, Zimmerman and Werth. The ironic thing is that NONE of those players are really the key cogs to this team going forward. Who do you really want the big dollars invested in moving forward? I would argue guys like Strasburg, Harper and even Desmond are more valuable to your team. And if signing Greinke inhibits your ability to retain those key players down the line (as well as guys like Jordan Zimmermann, Drew Storen, Danny Espinosa, etc.), well then I think that’s a bad thing. While it is certainly true that the Nationals available funds will get a boost once the TV deal between the franchise and MASN is re-negotiated, I would be cautious around spending this money now. The Nats may be sitting pretty right now, but they might need that money in a year or two.

From a baseball standpoint, Greinke would give the Nats the best rotation in baseball. My guess is that he would slot in as a No. 3 starter on this club between Gonzalez and Zimmermann (making Zimmermann the greatest No. 4 starter in the history of baseball). Greinke would be another hard-thrower in a rotation full of them. He has put up great numbers the past two seasons, despite bouncing from Kansas City to Milwaukee to Los Angeles.

With Greinke in the fold long-term, the Nationals don’t have to worry about the timetable for Alex Meyer, Lucas Giolito, Sammy Solis, etc. They could probably convert Meyer into a reliever, where his strong, two-pitch approach ultimately might work best. If they were to do this, Meyer could make it to the big leagues quicker, possibly as soon as the end of this year, filling a David Price-playoff reliever style role. Win-win right?

I’m not so sure. Greinke’s early-career psychological issues worry me, if the team is going to commit that much money to him. In addition, Greinke hasn’t exactly been the most consistent pitcher in the world. In between 16-win seasons in ’09 and ’11 is a clunker where he went 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA (granted wins can be a misleading stat, but work with me here). In the end though, my biggest problem is spending $100 million on a guy who is a No. 3 starter on our team. There is only so much money in the pot and the Nats should save it for locking up their homegrown talent.

I realize at this point, that I have advocated against acquiring two world-class players in Greinke and Upton. But I just feel like the Nationals have gotten this far by mostly building from within and avoiding these bad contracts (excluding Jayson Werth). They have a great stable of pieces right now. I’d much rather see them trade from their surplus (dangling someone like Michael Morse or Tyler Moore) than to see them squander their payroll on one guy. You can draft and rebuild players like that. You can’t just magically grow another $100 million in payroll.

Redskins becoming increasingly difficult to cheer for

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The head immature Redskin

As the Redskins continue along an all-too-familiar season (start out with glimmers of hope and then fade fast when the going gets tough), it’s become increasingly hard for me to root for this team. Not for the losses that are piling up, mind you. I’m no fair-weather fan. I’ve watched countless Nationals game when the product on the field was simply wretched. For some reason, I made myself watch some of the Wizards season opener last week. And I’ll continue to watch every Redskins game each Sunday.

But it’s so agonizing to watch a team that has such a low football IQ and does so many of the little things WRONG. It would be one thing if they were just getting out-talented (which they are to a certain extent). But it’s quite another to watch the kind of on-field mental implosions that we’re seeing. A quick recap:

  • Three weeks ago, the Redskins are winning the game in the final three minutes. Redskins defense needs a stop. What’s the one rule you can’t break as a defensive back? Don’t let anyone get by you. And that’s exactly what Madieu Williams did, allowing Victor Cruz to salsa his way into the endzone
  • Two weeks ago, with the Redskins getting their hind parts kicked up and down the field in a thorough beating, DeAngelo Hall decides he had enough. He loses his composure and decides to get himself ejected rather than play out the final few minutes with his teammates. Great defensive captain we’ve got there
  • Last week against the Panthers, Josh Wilson had been getting thoroughly embarrassed by Steve Smith. So after yet another pass interference call went against him, Wilson decided to have his turn jawing at the official, only to realize later that he needed to get off the field. He wasn’t in the package that the Redskins wanted on the field for that scenario. The next play: you guessed it, touchdown.

There are other examples I’m omitting like the abysmal way that the Redskins covered the zone-read this past week (which is not only a college offense, but one that the Redskins see every week in practice), or of course Josh Morgan’s blow-up against the Rams, or the sloppy drops and routes that the receivers run on a continual basis. But these examples stood out to me. It’s selfish and stupid play, and unfortunately, it’s become a characteristic of the Redskins this season. As encouraging as Robert Griffin III’s play this year has been, this has been equally discouraging.

You know who it reminds me of? The 2011-2012 Washington Wizards. A bunch of guys running around, gunning for me, never taking accountability for their actions and continually costing the team with their low basketball IQ. It looked like Nick Young had assumed the body of Brandon Banks on that last play of the game. Any DC sports fan knows that the comparison I just made is one of the most damning things that can be said about a professional franchise.

I get that this team is young. But these breakdowns aren’t coming from the likes of Aldrick Robinson, Morris or certainly not Griffin. They’re coming from the supposed veteran leaders of this team. Between Williams, Wilson and Hall, there are a combined 24 seasons in the NFL. 24!

When Mike Shanahan came to town, I thought that we would finally be able to put this type of behavior behind us. Gone were the days of pretend-NFL head coach Jim Zorn. The Redskins now had a real-live, battle-tested NFL head coach. Surely he wouldn’t allow the team to get away with such constant, undisciplined behavior right? Right?

Well, it’s been two and half years. Shanahan bought himself some more time by hitting on Griffin in the draft. But for me, that’s not enough. If there are systematic failures in the way your team approaches the game of football, then you’ve got to go. If you can’t get your team prepared for a self-imposed “must-win” game against a dreadful 1-6 team at home, you’ve got to go. Shanahan may be an offensive guru and he may be able to find a diamond in the rough like Alfred Morris. But until your team can be aware of principles that are taught in pee-wee football, you’re not doing your job right. Until the product you put out on the field can be called “professional,” you aren’t meeting the requirements of an NFL head coach.

Want to know one of the reasons this town fell in love with the Nationals this season? Because it’s a bunch of guys who play the game the right way. It’s a bunch of guys who come to the park to work everyday. As a fan, you can SEE how much it means to them and how hard they play, day-in and day-out. You think Jayson Werth would get himself ejected in a game they were losing by 8 runs late? No way. He’d want to come back and do something about that deficit. That’s what a leader does.The Redskins right now have only one guy who you could say that about, and it’s their rookie quarterback. That’s awfully depressing for a team that continually eschews building through the draft in favor of bringing in veterans who are supposed to already know the right way to play the game. Guess not. Maybe that’s just the Redskins Way.

Nationals should stand pat at the trading deadline

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For a couple of weeks now, the Nationals name has been thrown about in rumors regarding starting pitchers such as Zach Greinke, Francisco Liriano and Ryan Dempster. There have also been there ever-present rumors about B.J. Upton and Denard Span. While it is always beneficial for a team to do their due diligence on what a player might cost in a trade, at this point none of those options make sense for the Nationals. As we saw Saturday night, the Nationals have a more than capable starter ready to go when (NOT if) Stephen Strasburg hits his innings limit and is shutdown (quick sidebar: everyone who says he shouldn’t be shut down is an idiot. Also, I don’t understand the prevailing national media idea that D.C. will revolt if Strasburg is shut down. On the contrary, I think Nationals fans are one of the few groups of people that realize the wisdom in Rizzo’s decision). John Lannan was masterful against the Braves, allowing two runs in seven innings pitched. That second part is almost more important to me, since as wonderful as the Nationals starters have been this year, it seems Stras and Gio are always getting the hook around the sixth inning (now, yes there could have been the extraneous factor of a spent bullpen in Game 2 of a doubleheader, but work with me here). Lannan is certainly a viable option to take over for Strasburg for a few games in September. That’s also another part of the discussion that rarely gets mentioned: Strasburg is on pace to be shut down sometime in early September. That means that this “sixth starter” will realistically only need to make three, maybe four, starts this season. Once the Nationals reach the playoffs, they can go with a three man rotation in Round 1 and a four man rotation after. So you have to ask yourself, is it really worth giving up ANYTHING for a marginal upgrade over three starts this year?

The second part of the trade deadline is more cut and dry in my mind. Denard Span and B.J. Upton do not appear to the be the answer to the team’s search for a centerfielder, other than the fact they are, in fact, people who play centerfield in the major leagues. Bryce Harper hasn’t been THAT bad in center this year, and there’s no reason to think that Span or Upton represent a significant upgrade (specifically regarding Upton, where would you hit him in the lineup? Oh great we got another low-OBP, high-slugging guy to hit sixth in the order. As if we don’t have enough of those). I have to think the team is going to take a run at Michael Bourn in the offseason, which will end all of this nonsense anyways. So for a year when it’s not really YOUR year, why pay for a rental?

Another key piece is the system that the Nationals would be reaching into to complete one of these deals. The farm system is not incredibly deep right now. In my mind, there are five premier-talent players in the system: Lucas Giolito, Anthony Rendon, Matt Purke, Alex Meyer and Brian Goodwin. Three out of those five come with SIGNIFICANT injury concerns (in fact, I’m very pessimistic that Purke ever contributes at the major league level. Elbow injuries are becoming more and more commonplace to recover from. Shoulders? Not so much). After those five players, the Nats have some nice players, but no one that is really going to tickle anyone’s fancy in a trade scenario. So it just doesn’t match up for them to try to take a run at someone at this deadline.

Finally, for a little levity I just want to bring a couple of trade ideas that good ole’ Trader Jim threw out on his Twitter account in the last two weeks (for levity’s sake. The first was the Nationals trading Rendon, Meyer and Michael Morse for Justin Upton. LOL. The second was the Nats trade Morse straight up for B.J. Upton. LOL. Gotta hand it to Bowden: he sure does love his toolsy-outfielders.

Reax to E-Jax

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Just when I thought the off-season signings were done, and the Nats were set to march into spring training, this happens (and no, I’m not talking about the Rick Ankiel signing). The Nats threw a monkey wrench into their already-crowded rotation by inking Edwin Jackson to a so-called “pillow deal” (a one-year deal meant to build up the player’s value in anticipation of a mega-deal next off-season. The Nationals now legitimately have seven pitchers who should be in a major league rotation this year: Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, Jackson, Chien-Ming Wang, Ross Detwiler and John Lannan. Some quick thoughts:

1. Why the one-year deal?- The Nationals’ window for contending is clearly approaching. Their payroll should bump up by almost $20 million this year. However, it’s pretty clear that this year isn’t part of that window. Stephen Strasburg is going to have to be shut down at some point. Bryce Harper will be a rookie when he makes his major league debut. And as of right now, our starting center fielder is Rick Ankiel. That does not sound like a recipe for a championship parade to me. So why pay a bunch of money for a starter who sounds like he is just going to be here for one year? I can’t see the Nats wanting to break the bank and sign Jackson to a big deal next year unless he somehow morphs into a Cy Young candidate. They just don’t have the payroll space, with what they have already committed or are going to have to commit to the top three of Strasburg, Zimmermann and Gonzalez. My only conclusion is that ownership has decided that they want to make the playoffs this year, window be damned. Maybe the Lerners sense that the D.C. fanbase is yearning for a winner, and they could stand to make some money if they put a product out there that just approximates that.

2. What to make of the Nationals rotation now?- If you thought the Nats had a crowded rotation before this trade, how about now? My only thought is there HAS to be a John Lannan trade coming this Spring. You just can’t carry BOTH Lannan and Detwiler in the ‘pen. And the Nats brass are clearly high on Detwiler considering all of the opportunities that they have thrown his way in his career. That sounds an awful lot like Lannan’s time in D.C. is up. He did just get a raise through arbitration. Maybe part of the reason that the Nats were willing to spend $11 million on Edwin Jackson was they knew they planned on cutting $5 million off the payroll in Lannan. Either way, there has to be some move coming before the start of the season. Right?!

3. The Nationals are immediately contenders for one of the wildcards- Sure, there is still plenty of uncertainty surrounding the everyday lineup. It’s pretty much the same as last year. And you can make the argument that the upgrade from Laynce Nix as an everyday player to Adam LaRoche to an everyday player could be offset by possible regression to the mean from Danny Espinosa and Wilson Ramos. Let’s not forget, the two of them played out of their minds as rookies. Will we see second-half Danny or first-half Danny? Will the two of them improve in their second year or hit a sophomore slump, a la Ian Desmond? I think these are legitimate concerns for this team (and that’s not even touching the centerfield situation which is as murky as ever). However, when you have the starting rotation that the Nats have (and the knock-out back of the bullpen), you’re a playoff contender. I believe in Steve McCatty as a pitching coach, considering what he has done with Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis the last couple of years. Now let’s see what he can do with some legitimate top-tier talent. Hitters are going to be struggling having to face the sheer power stuff that the Nats can throw. They now have enough innings from their seven starters to stay steady over the course of the season (there is a big difference between steady and spectacular though). For stretches of the season, this should be one of the most filthy, dominant rotations in baseball. And that should lead to a playoff berth. I said it. Fire up the bandwagon!